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  I'm looking forward this week to speaking with developing traders at SMB Capital , where I will share many of the lessons I've learned working with successful portfolio managers and teams at top hedge funds.  For those interested in hearing some of those lessons, I'll also be talking with My Investing Club at 4:15 PM ET on Thursday the 28th; the link to register is here .   As a rule, it's important to know what is happening at time frames larger than the ones you're trading and also to know what is happening at time frames shorter than your typical holding period .  The larger time frames place your trade idea into perspective, addressing whether--bigger picture--we are in range markets, trends, etc.  The shorter time frames provide you with the concrete information needed to turn a good idea into a good risk/reward trade.  So, for example, I might have the idea that stocks have entered a downturn due to "higher for longer" interest rates.  I ...

  We detect strength in the stock market and we buy.  We detect weakness and we sell.  Both occasions lose money.  What is going on?  In this post, we will take a look at market behavior and how market patterns themselves create trading psychology challenges.  The common assumption is that, if we can just maintain a good mindset, we'll be able to identify market patterns and make money.  This post will show that this is a gross simplification. I examined the last three years of daily data, focusing on the SPY and the percentage of stocks in the Standard and Poors 500 Index trading above their 5 and 20 day moving averages.  (Data from the excellent Barchart site).  I divided the data set into quartiles and specifically examined what happens following periods of very strong (top quartile) and very weak breadth (bottom quartile). When the percentage of stocks trading above their five-day moving averages was in the top quartile (approximately 74...

  The great risk in life is to live reactively, bouncing from activity to activity without plan or purpose.  When we live purposeful lives, life becomes meaningful--and that gives us energy.  Suppose we were to begin our days, weeks, and months by posing questions: *  What is the one thing I most want to accomplish today in my personal life and in my work life that will make the day successful? *  What is the one thing I most want to accomplish this week in my personal and work lives that will make the week successful? *  What is the one thing I most want to accomplish this month in my personal and work lives that will make the month successful? *  What is the one thing I most want to accomplish this year in my personal and work lives that will make the year successful? That's it:  Every day, every week, every month, every year is guided by a singular vision .  What one thing will lead you to look back on each day, week, month, and year and f...

  Margie and I recently toured Eastern Europe and finished the trip with a tour of  the concentration camp at Terezin .  During the 3-1/2 years of the camp's existence , thousands of inmates were killed or died of untreated diseases.  What I found most memorable were the displays of artworks created by the inmates during their internment.  Music, painting, drama, sculpture :  all were of vital importance to the inmates.  Despite inhuman conditions of crowding and frequent abuse and torture, prisoners focused on creating works of beauty.  That many of these works are with us today attests to the success of their quest.      For me, it was a powerful reminder that, no matter how bad our situations become, we always can rise above them through creative expression and achievement .  When we create--a painting, a book, a scientific theory, even a trading system--we rise above what is and realize a vision of what can be.  Indeed...